The Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) is in disarray, with a fourth of its 39 MLAs, elected only in November last year, switching sides to the Congress, with more expected to do so in the coming weeks, as six BRS MLCs did collectively. This paradigm change from what was once portrayed and seen as an invincible BRS supremo, K. Chandrashekar Rao (KCR), is gaining traction quickly.
All of this comes as a three-member Congress panel led by P.J. Kurien concludes that the party did not perform as well as expected in the state’s Lok Sabha elections, splitting 16 seats evenly with the BJP because much of the BRS vote-bank shifted to the saffron party only six months after the assembly polls. Asaduddin Owaisi, the head of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, retained the seventeenth Lok Sabha seat in Hyderabad.
The vote shares reflect the stark reality. The BJP’s share increased dramatically from 13.9% (eight seats) in the assembly elections to 35.08 percent in the Lok Sabha elections. This vote increase of more than 21 percentage points is somewhat greater than the BRS’s vote share loss of 20.67 percentage points. The pink party’s vote share dropped from 37.35% in the assembly elections to 16.68% in the Lok Sabha elections. The Congress’ vote share was only slightly higher, rising from 39.40 percent to 40.10 percent in the six months after taking office.
The Congress’s failure to gain more support in the Lok Sabha polls, while having more than quadrupled its 2019 total of three seats, is cause for concern, particularly given the party’s desire to solidify its position in Telangana. The immediate concern is that the BJP is gaining momentum and improving its chances of becoming the main challenger of the Congress in the state.
Chief Minister A. Revanth Reddy, who also serves as president of the Telangana Pradesh Congress Committee, has excelled in both governing and dealing with political adversaries. He seems ready to do exactly what KCR did to the Congress after the 2014 and 2019 assembly polls—weaning away Congress MLAs to boost the pink party, then known as the Telangana Rashtra Samithi.
Reddy has already engaged ten BRS MLAs, in addition to KCR, in his quest to repay him in the same coin. More defections are being organized in order to capture two-thirds of the BRS legislature party (BRSLP) and avoid the anti-defection rule by presenting it as a merger of the BRSLP. The inherent advantage is that MLAs will not have to quit and seek re-election, putting both them and the Congress to the test.
The Congress’s strategy is to target Hyderabad MLAs in order to strengthen its position in the city, which was weakened by the BRS. KCR’s party targeted prominent members of the Congress and the Telugu Desam Party. Vem Narender Reddy, the government’s advisor, appears to be communicating with the MLAs, first through intermediaries and then in person. The Congress is hoping to consolidate in Greater Hyderabad, which has 24 MLAs in the legislature but did not win any seats in the November assembly elections last year.
Furthermore, elections for the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) are expected next year. In the 2020 GHMC election, the BRS emerged as the largest party, winning 55 out of 150 wards, followed by the BJP with 48 and the AIMIM with 44. The Congress won only two wards. Now, capturing the GHMC is critical for the Congress and the chief minister’s image. What may complicate the fight is a bid by N. Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP to enter the race, especially since he recently stated that the two Telugu states are like his “two eyes”.
Reddy is thus carrying out his consolidation plans by enlisting BRS MLAs with the same zeal that KCR did against the Congress in the past. This despite one of Congress’s ‘Panch Nyays’ discouraging defections. As a result, a BRSLP merger is in the works. It expects the number of crossovers to reach 25, which would account for two-thirds of all BRS MLAs.
Reddy explains it by asserting that the BRS, maybe with the support of the BJP, is attempting to overthrow him, and that strengthening the Congress is the only way forward. Currently, the ruling party has a slim majority in the 119-member legislative assembly—only 65 seats, including the support of the lone member of ally CPI.
BRS legislators’ fluctuating loyalties are driven by compulsions. Only the Congress’s support can ensure a consistent flow of funds for development projects in their constituencies during a time when the state is facing a severe budget shortage. And it will be critical to remain in the eyes of voters at the next assembly election.
Furthermore, elections for panchayati raj institutions are due in less than a year. Though not fought on party tickets, these polls may shock BRS MLAs’ calculations if they do not flip to Congress. Some are even considering joining the BJP because they do not see any benefits from the Congress due to inter-personal and constituency-level feuds. However, the BJP is apprehensive because of the potential damage on its image in Telangana, where it hopes to emerge as a formidable factor ahead of the 2028 assembly election.
This is also why the Congress is going out all the means to recruit BRS members from the legislative council—the upper house of the Telangana legislature—to join its ranks and ensure a complete catastrophe. In addition to the six BRS MLCs who have switched sides, four more are expected to do so in response to the chief minister’s guarantees. When that happens, the Congress will have 16 seats in the 40-member legislative council, two of which are vacant.
All of this has left KCR perplexed and anxious for a counter-strategy to save his party from its adversary. The BRS patriarch, who considers himself the single founding father of Telangana, is increasingly seeking face-saving measures. Aside from attempting to hold back the desperate BRS MLAs, he is also considering supporting the BJP in the Rajya Sabha, where the saffron party is short of numbers. The BRS has four Rajya Sabha members who could be useful, even if the rumours regarding their merger with the BJP are disregarded as a ploy to malign the ‘pink party’.
Reddy claims that individuals who formerly dismissed the Congress are now seeing their party support diminish. He justified BRS MLAs’ decision to join the Congress by stating that they want to contribute to progress. “The BRS leadership is working towards destabilising the government but its MLAs are joining the Congress to protect the government,” added the minister.