Indian region of Amethi/Rae Bareli – As the proprietor of a tea stall, Irfan is confident that a change is on the horizon.
In reference to two towns and a party that for decades have been identified with one family – the Nehru-Gandhis, or as they are more widely known, the Gandhis – he says, “There has not been much traffic on this road from Rae Bareli to Amethi ever since the Congress lost power in 2014.” When he says this, he is referring to the fact that the Congress party has been out of office since 2014.
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Through three generations of prime ministers—Jayaharlal Nehru, his daughter Indira Gandhi, and his grandson Rajiv Gandhi—the first dynasty of Indian politics has ruled the country for approximately half of its journey since the country gained its independence in 1947.
Amethi and Rae Bareli, who are separated by 62 kilometers (38 miles), have, for the most part, been there for their family through many ups and downs, including times when the Congress has been in power and times when it has been out of power. With 80 seats out of a total of 543 seats in the lower house of parliament, they have functioned as safe constituencies for India’s grand old party in the state of Uttar Pradesh, which is located in the northern region of India. Uttar Pradesh is India’s largest electoral prize.
In 2019, this tradition was given a major jolt when Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the Congress party and the son of Rajiv Gandhi, lost the election for Amethi by a margin of 55,000 votes to Smriti Irani, a combative minister in the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government, which has been in power on a national level since 2014. Sonia Gandhi, Rahul’s mother and a previous leader of the Congress party, fought to keep Rae Bareli for the party. Rae Bareli was the lone seat that the party won in Uttar Pradesh, at a time when the BJP was sweeping the nation and capturing 303 seats altogether.
Now, five years later, the towns are a tense microcosm of the national conflict between the Congress, which is the opposition party, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is the ruling party. This time, Rahul is taking over for his mother, who is 77 years old and lives in Rae Bareli. Irani, a member of the BJP, is running for reelection in Amethi. It is anticipated that each of them will be confronted with fierce competition from the other party. On May 20, Amethi and Rae Bareli will cast their votes in India’s most important election.
There are more than two seats at stake: if the BJP is successful in winning Rae Bareli and keeping Amethi, it will have virtually eliminated the Gandhi family and the Congress from the state of Uttar Pradesh. On the other hand, according to leaders of the opposition, a victory for the Congress in both seats might kickstart anti-BJP momentum in a state that frequently determines who is in charge on a national level.
Irfan is of the opinion that the political winds are flowing in the way of the Congress party from his vantage point in Tiloi town, which is located close to Amethi and Rae Bareli at the moment. It is being said that a storm is brewing in both of the cities, which will have an effect on the entire state.
On the other hand, Amethi and Rae Bareli are aware of the fact that storms can be unpredictable.
At an election campaign rally in Thane, on the outskirts of Mumbai, India, attended by Rahul Gandhi, the vice president of the Congress party and the scion of the Nehru-Gandhi family, a supporter of the Congress party of India, who is wearing an outfit with portraits of former Indian Prime Ministers Indira Gandhi, top, and Rajiv Gandhi, waves to the camera.
This photograph was taken on Thursday, March 6, 2014. In an election campaign that was led by Rahul Gandhi, who is the son, grandson, and great-grandson of Indian prime ministers, the Indian National Congress party suffered the most severe defeat in its 128-year existence on Friday, when the results of India’s general election were published. Rahul Gandhi is the son, grandson, and tremendous-grandson of Indian prime leaders. (Photo contributed by Rajanish Kakade, File)
At an election campaign rally in Thane, which was held on the outskirts of Mumbai, India, on March 6, 2014, a fan of the Congress party of India, who was wearing an outfit that featured photographs of previous Indian Prime Ministers Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi, waves to the camera. Rahul Gandhi was the speaker at the rally.
A morale booster for the adversary?
Rahul and his mother Sonia can be seen in a film that was shared on social media platforms by the Congress party. In the video, they are seen looking through old photographs of the family traveling to Amethi and Rae Bareli to participate in the elections. They are also shown reflecting on their family’s long-standing connection to the regions.
It has been a link for many years. Indira Gandhi’s husband and Rahul Gandhi’s grandfather, Feroze Gandhi, was victorious in the first election held in independent India, which took place in 1952. The subsequent election resulted in Indira and Sonia being elected to this seat, with their tenure being broken up by terms in which their supporters were selected to run for office from the town instead.
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Rae Bareli has only been lost to the Congress party three times. Indira Gandhi’s government was overthrown by a national opposition alliance in 1977, which led to the Congress party’s rise to power. This occurred in the midst of a wave of resentment directed at the Congress party for its imposition of a state of national emergency in 1975, during which civil liberties were suspended and thousands of political opponents were incarcerated.
During the years 1996 and 1998, when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was on the rise and had only initially come to power, it was able to defeat the Congress party in this area. However, the Gandhi family was not a part of the struggle during those years.
In Amethi, Indira Gandhi’s older son Feroze Gandhi was unsuccessful in the election held in 1977 but triumphant in 1980. Before Irani’s upset in 2019, the Congress had only lost once before then, and that was in the year 1998. Both Rahul and Sonia have emerged victorious from Amethi.
Many commentators, following Rahul’s defeat in 2019, pondered whether or not he would ever run for office from the family pocket boroughs, or even from Uttar Pradesh, again. Back in 2019, he had won the election from Wayanad, which is located in the southern state of Kerala. This time around, he ran from the same location.
Internal sources inside the Congress party claim that he was initially dubious about running for a second seat this time around. However, he was eventually persuaded to do so by the pressure exerted by Sonia, who was reluctant to giving up the family’s bastions without a struggle. In the end, Rahul’s sister Priyanka, who is now also a leader in the Congress party, made the decision not to run for office.
Kishori Lal Sharma, a longstanding family friend, is competing against Irani, who is running from Amethi. Rahul is running from Rae Bareli, and Irani is running from Amethi. It is a situation that some of the opposition’s leaders believe has the potential to be successful for them. Ameeque Jamei, a national spokesperson for the Samajwadi Party, which is the Congress’s most important ally in Uttar Pradesh, had told Al Jazeera that if Rahul or Priyanka contested, the “opposition fight against the BJP will gain greater meaning.” This statement was made in the days leading up to the Congress’s decision regarding its candidates for these seats. It was his prediction that the INDIA alliance, which is led by the Congress and is competing against the BJP on a national level, may win up to twenty of Uttar Pradesh’s eighty seats.
It is much simpler to say than it is to do. Rahul is going up against a serious opponent in Dinesh Pratap Singh, who is a member of the BJP. In 2019, Dinesh Pratap Singh gave Sonia a tough fight, which significantly reduced her margin of victory. When it comes to the manner in which the Gandhis respect their lineage, Singh has been relentless in his criticism. Feroze Gandhi, Rahul’s grandfather, whose cemetery is located only 100 kilometers (60 miles) away from Rae Bareli, is hardly ever mentioned by either the party or the family.
The statement is made by Singh, who asks, “A person who cannot be that of his grandfather, how can he be yours?”
As he arrives to file his nomination for the ongoing general elections in Amethi, which is located in the state of Uttar Pradesh in northern India, Rahul Gandhi, the Vice President of India’s ruling Congress party, is seen holding a handful of flower petals to throw back at supporters. His sister, Priyanka Vadra, is seated by his side. The event took place on Saturday, April 12, 2014. In the general election, Gandhi, who is the heir to the political dynasty that can be traced back to Nehru and Gandhi, is leading the campaign for the party that is struggling. Voting in many phases will continue across the country until May 12; the results of the election for the lower house of parliament, which has 543 seats, will be announced on May 16. (Photo contributed by Rajesh Kumar Singh)
Rahul Gandhi, on the right, and his sister Priyanka Gandhi campaigning in Amethi, Uttar Pradesh, in advance of the national election in 2014.
The politics of barbershops
Priyanka and Rahul are, in their own unique ways, conducting a barnstorming operation in the generally sleepy cities of Rae Bareli and Amethi underneath the surface.
In recent times, Rahul has been sneaking into a barbershop in the neighborhood to get his beard cut. Videos of him sitting at the barbershop went popular on the internet. Road shows and corner meetings are two of the activities that Priyanka does while she is split between the two places.
In addition, the Congress has recruited other influential personalities to bolster its campaigns in this region by utilizing their familiarity with politics and their political acumen. At the Shalimar Guest House, which is owned and operated by Rae Bareli, Bhupesh Baghel, who formerly served as the chief minister of the state of Chhattisgarh, is getting his supporters together. In Rae Bareli, Rahul has a significant amount of support. In other words, I don’t have to do a lot of work,” he explains.
Ashok Gehlot, a former chief minister of Rajasthan, is in charge of the Congress campaign in Amethi. Irani, who has doubled down on her allegations that the Gandhi family neglected the town and Rae Bareli for decades despite winning from there, is the opponent of the Congress campaign in Amethi.
The backing of two significant voting blocs is essential to the success of the Congress. Approximately 22 percent of the population of Uttar Pradesh is comprised of Muslims. According to Muhammad Alam, a Muslim leader from Amethi, many members of his community had been considering voting for the BJP; however, Modi’s recent attacks, which included allegations that the Congress would take Hindu money and give it to Muslims, had altered their thoughts about voting for the BJP.
It has been reported by Gautam Rane, an activist from the Dalit community in Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh, that certain segments of the group, which is located at the bottom of India’s intricate caste hierarchy, are also moving towards the Congress. Historically, the community has shown its support for the Bahujan Samaj Party, which is the regional party in the state. It has been suggested by the Congress that the BJP is interested in altering the constitution and removing caste-based affirmative action privileges from the Dalits. This is a claim that the BJP has refuted, but the Congress has utilized random comments made by some BJP officials to make this assertion.
“Rahul Gandhi is the one who will win these elections,” Rane claims. “No one else is important,” the speaker said.
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